How Long Will My Retirement Last ?

Life Expectancy

We are all living longer. Life expectancy at birth has been steadily increasing for many years. It has more than doubled in the last two centuries.

This increase was previously driven by reductions in infant mortality. But since the early 1950s, the main driver has been reductions in mortality at older ages.

The World Health Organisation reports that global life expectancy for
births in 2016 was 74.2 years for men and 69.8 for women.   In OECD
countries, including the United States, you can generally add five years to these figures.  Significantly, life expectancy at birth increased by 5.5 years between 2000 and 2016 – that’s an extra four months for every passing year!   So our grandchildren will be living longer.

Statistical Probabilities after age 65


However, for you and I, it’s better to focus on the statistics relating to probabilities.   And we know that currently, in OECD countries, for a man aged 65, the probability is that his “estate event” will occur at age 89.  For a women aged 65, the probability is that her "estate event" will occur at age 93.  But that’s just the average – actually, over half of us will be living well into our 90s, especially if you have good genes.  And continuing advances in medical science will ensure that this trend will continue.

How to live longer

The crossover (between those who are living longer and those who aren’t) appears to be related to three lifestyle issues – mental health, physical exercise and social networks. Money helps of course, but it’s not at the core of our increasing longevity.

Death is inevitable.  This is simply the natural outcome of the biology of
ageing – as we age, our bodies are less able to resist. Which is why cancer is so much more common in senior seniors, and why – especially in the United States – Retirement Bankruptcy is such a growing social phenomena. New medical treatments are constantly emerging, but the cost of treatment continues to escalate.

“How long will my retirement last?” is not an idle question, but the precise answer keeps sliding further away from us.

Research suggests that to avoid a boring retirement (and early death) you should keep mentally and physically active, develop a "profitable hobby" and maintain your social networks – and then (when your estate event eventually occurs) your family will know the answer to the question How Long Will Retirement Last?



email me Bernard Kelly to arrange a mutually convenient time for a initial chat

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